The West Should Only Offer Conditional Support to Israel

As Israel prepares its counterattack against the terror unleashed by Hamas, allies are mustering to its defense. That support should not be unconditional. Finding Israel’s policies towards Gaza and the West Bank wanting does not imply a defense for the actions of Hamas. Palestinians essentially live in a prison while illegal Israeli settlements continue to sprout. Many Israeli actions are internationally condemned and have flouted diplomatic agreements. Half-hearted peace talks between Israel and Palestine have been largely fruitless over the last several decades.

The United States offers unconditional support for Israel, which has often flown in the face of international accords; for instance, the U.S. liberally vetoes United Nations Security Council resolutions critical of Israel.[1] These actions lend credence to pessimistic anti-western voices who claim that human rights are facades for self-serving realpolitik.[2]

But even if the West had been pushing for more reasonable policies towards Palestinians, it is uncertain exactly how that pressure would be received by Israel. Countries are after all sovereign entities, and alienating an ally (i.e. compelling policy changes through sanctions) with major common geopolitical objectives should not be done lightly. Clearly, decades of diplomatic efforts by the West have failed.

Rarely in recent times has the West been presented an opportunity to showcase its support for the rule of law, for human rights, or just for doing the right thing as this crisis. The West Bank may rise up. Hezbollah – backed by Iran – may be preparing to invade from Lebanon. Iran is not shy about interfering even more directly, as proven by their recent actions in Yemen and Syria. Hezbollah alone may have over a hundred thousand missiles, many of which can hit precise targets. It would not be impossible for them to sink a big chunk of Israel’s fleet, damage its infrastructure, and kill countless people in just one massive attack. Israel needs all the friends it can get. The bargaining position of Israel’s allies or foes is extremely strong given the stakes and uncertainty. The US and UK have already stepped up – most notably the US has ordered two aircraft carrier groups and issued clear warnings in support of deterrence.[3]

As Israel prepares to retaliate against Hamas, a disaster appears to be in the works. Israel ordered over 1 million civilians to evacuate the North part of the Gaza strip on October 12, which the UN has already decried as impossible. Already, over 300,000 civilians have been displaced in Gaza. Gaza is under siege, there is no more power, food and water are becoming scarce. A major military operation will undoubtedly lead to countless civilian deaths, mostly Palestinians. What happens next? Will Israel seek to destroy Hamas and attempt to return to the status quo which fermented the current crisis? What settlement can bring long elusive peace and prosperity to Palestine? These are the questions that need to be discussed now, and it is based on these discussions that the West should offer its unwavering support to the only democracy in the Middle East. Support should be conditional on Israel doing the right thing. In an era in which the relative power and economic heft of the West is slipping and authoritarians challenge global norms with greater impunity every day, that matters.

[1] Creed Newton, “A history of the US blocking UN resolutions against Israel,” Al Jazeera, May 19, 2021.

[2] See for instance “The world according to Xi,” The Economist, March 23, 2023.

[3] Max Colchester, “U.K. Sends Ships and Aircraft to Mediterranean to Support Israel,” Wall Street Journal, October 14, 2023. Martha Raddatz and Luis Martinez, “Exclusive: US to send 2nd aircraft carrier to eastern Mediterranean,” ABC News, October 15, 2023.